A projected quit-tracking value has not happened yet

Locate the boundary between record and projection

Read the labels, legend, and dates before interpreting a line that continues beyond the last observation. A dashed segment, a shaded area, or a future date may indicate a projection, but appearance alone is not enough. Look for the explanation of what generated those values and what information was available at the time.

This article does not claim that No Vape predicts future use or calculates a personal quitting probability. Its published functions verify tracking and goals. A goal you choose, an estimate you make, and a model-generated forecast are separate statements even when all appear on one planning sheet.

No Vape: No Vape — app features and store links

Write one original forecast example with its assumption

Imagine a fictional worksheet assuming that tomorrow’s count will equal the latest three-observation average. It may produce a projected value of 3. That is an arithmetic rule applied to past entries; it does not mean that three events have occurred tomorrow or that the rule is accurate for this person.

NIST’s moving-average material explains a way to summarize past values. Using that summary as a simple next-period assumption is our illustrative exercise, not validated cessation forecasting. A future context can differ from the recorded ones. More precise-looking decimal places do not establish that the projection will be close to an observation.

US National Institute of Standards and Technology: Single Moving Average

Keep later observations separate from earlier expectations

When the day arrives, record what you actually observed under your usual definition. If it differs from the forecast, preserve the distinction instead of replacing the real entry or pretending the forecast never existed. If you retain a comparison, note when the forecast was made and the data it used.

For the invented worksheet, tomorrow might contain an observed zero or an unknown entry. Zero and unknown still mean different things; neither should be changed to 3 to match the earlier projection. The discrepancy cannot by itself explain a cause, establish a treatment result, or reveal that a new plan failed.

Choose a present action that does not depend on a promise

Ask what situation you can prepare for now: a known break, an available support contact, or a practical routine. That decision can use your actual observations without requiring a forecast of success. Keep clinical decisions with an appropriate professional, rather than using a chart extension to set individualized treatment.

A useful reading note says: “Recorded values end here; later values are projections under this rule.” If the method is unavailable, leave it unverified. This task cannot assess a named forecasting model or guarantee any future event. It prevents an expectation from quietly entering your observed history and makes the next practical step independent of an unsupported prediction.